New Prognostic Model Improves Prediction of Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma


Prognostic model provides simple and accurate clinical description for each HCC patient.

Researchers were able to develop superior survival predictions compared with current prognostic models in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during a recent study.

The study, published in PLOS Medicine, used the ITA.LI.CA dataset. From there, researchers evaluated 5390 HCC patients from 19 institutes in Italy.

The ITA.LI.CA staging system was created using tumor characteristics. Next, a parametric multivariable survival model was developed that integrated the ITA.LI.CA stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein.

The results of the study showed that the prognostic score concordance indices of 0.71 in internal — a subset of ITA.LI.CA – and 0.78 external (Taiwanese, n=2651) validation cohorts, and compared favorably (p < 0.001) to other prognostic systems for HCC (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS).

This prognostic model provides a simple and accurate clinical description for each HCC patient and has the potential to be used for designing clinical trials or determining treatments.

Prospective trials are needed to validate the generalizability of the ITA.LI.CA prognostic score.

“(T)his system is an important iteration in the evolution of staging for HCC, and, while it enters a crowded field, the ITA.LI.CA staging system is a worthy entrant,” wrote Neehar Parikh and Amit Singal, in a commentary on the study.

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