Analysis Forecasts Up to 16.5% of Population Will Have Chronic Kidney Disease by 2032


IMPACT CKD, a modeling analysis created by AstraZeneca, includes data about chronic kidney disease across 8 countries, including the United States.

IMPACT CKD, a modeling analysis created by AstraZeneca, forecasted that up to 16.5% of the population will suffer from chronic kidney disease (CKD) by 2032 across the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia, according to a press release from the company.1

Diseased human kidney on science background | Image Credit: Rasi -

Image Credit: Rasi -

“Our modeling emphasizes the enormous impact CKD could have on patients, economies and the environment. But this future is not inevitable,” Ruud Dobber, executive vice president of the BioPharmaceuticals Business Unit at AstraZeneca, said in the press release.1

Additionally, there is expected to be a rise of up to 59.3% in advanced stage CKD. The study demonstrated a growing global health crisis, highlighting economic and environmental impacts, according to results presented at the 2024 ISN World Congress of Nephrology. According to the press release, IMPACT CKD is the first study to examine and forecast the impact of CKD over a 10-year time period, including the clinical, economical, societal, and environmental impacts.1

The study is part of the company’s Accelerating Change Together (ACT) for CKD initiative, which is aimed at improving the understanding and outcomes of CKD worldwide. The goal of the program is to reduce the proportion of individuals progressing to kidney failure at least 20% by the year 2025, by increasing awareness of the burden and consequences of CKD. The program will also expand early detection and drive the optimization of treatment to improve patient outcomes, according to the press release.1

There are a variety of programs included in the initiative, including DISOVER-CKD, showing the lack of urine albumin-creatine ratio testing and adherence to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines; REVEAL-CKD, aimed at extending the gaps in early detection and the benefits of diagnosing CKD early; INSIDE-CKD, demonstrating the future burden of CKD and potential benefits of the health care system with improved management; PACE-CKD, showing CKD is associated with poorer quality of life for patients and their caretakers; and IMPACT CKD, modeling the future burden for public health policy planning across societal and environmental sectors, according to the press release.1

Key Takeaways

  1. Up to 16.5% of the population in eight major countries is projected to have CKD by 2032.
  2. The number of advanced-stage CKD cases is expected to jump by up to 59.3%.
  3. These findings highlight the growing impact of CKD on patients, economies, and the environment.

Through the ACT program, AstraZeneca and the Global Patient Alliance for Kidney Health has launched the Make the Change for Kidney Health campaign, intended to emphasize CKD on the global policy agenda, according to the press release.1 According to the website for the program, CKD affects approximately 850 million individuals globally, and is projected to be the world’s fifth leading cause of death by 2040. Additionally, a large number of cases are often under diagnosed until the disease progresses to more severe stages, with fewer than 10% of individual being aware that they have CKD. Due to the high prevalence of CKD for individuals with hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes, there is an opportunity for the early identification of CDK with these risk factors, according to the program website. Routine testing for those at high risk could help more individuals get diagnosed earlier and potentially improve outcomes.2

  1. New modelling reveals the escalating toll of chronic kidney disease on patients, planet and economies. News release. AstraZeneca. April 15, 2023. Accessed April 16, 2024.
  2. Global Patient Alliance for Kidney Health. 2023. Accessed April 16, 2024.
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