Nomogram Risk Assessment Can Predict Herpes Zoster in Individuals With T2D


A more customized approach could be beneficial in terms of reducing illness via lifestyle and medication intervention monitoring.

The nomogram risk assessment was created to help physicians classify the risk of herpes zoster (HZ) for individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D), but a more customized approach could be beneficial to illness risk reduction via lifestyle and medical intervention monitoring, new study results show.

The HZ nomogram is useful for individuals with T2D when the intervention is determined at the 16% of the HZ infection potential threshold of the decision curve but less than 65%.

The risk nomogram designed for individuals with T2D was very accurate. The C-index for the model was 0.858, indicating a good fit for the model.

Hypertension was an associated factor in a majority of individuals with T2D and was more common for those with HZ infection.

The data were gathered by investigators from the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University in China between January 2018 and December 2019.

In the study, 266 Chinese individuals diagnosed with HZ were analyzed. They were grouped into diabetes and non-diabetes arms, and about 60% of individuals had HZ and T2DM. The participants’ characteristics were also gathered, such as age, gender, length of hospital stay, and weight. Other variables measured were fasting plasma glucose, glycosuria, hypertension, infection, the location of the skin rash, serum creatinine, and 2 hours plasma glucose (2hPG) levels.

Bases on those factors, an individualized prediction model was constructed including independent variables found to be significant for HZ infection.

The study results were published in Risk Management and Healthcare Policy.


Zeng N, Li Y, Wang Q, et al. Development and evaluation of a new predictive nomogram for predicting risk of herpes zoster infection in a Chinese population with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Risk Management and Healthcare Policy. 2021;14:4789-4797. doi:10.2147/RMHP.S310938

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