Data Suggest Routine Multicancer Early Detection Tests Could Reduce Late–Stage Diagnoses

Routine multicancer early detection (MCED) tests could help oncologists diagnose cancer at earlier stages, allowing for patients to timely care when their disease is most responsive to treatment, according to data published in Cancer.¹

Cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States, representing a significant public health and economic burden. In 2020, the economic burden of cancer reached $209 billion, and as the US population ages and cancer therapies move further into the future, these costs are expected to rise.¹

Diagnosing cancer in its early stages greatly improves the chances of successful treatment, as late-stage disease and metastasis are far harder to cure. In the US, about half of all cancers are still diagnosed only after they have reached advanced stages. Currently, the US Preventive Services Task Force recommends routine screening for only 4 cancer types—breast, cervical, colorectal, and lung—leaving roughly 70% of new diagnoses in cancers for which no screening tests exist.¹

“Our analysis shows that multi-cancer blood tests could be a game changer for cancer control,” said Jagpreet Chhatwal, PhD, the study’s lead author and director of the Institute for Technology Assessment at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School. “By detecting cancers earlier—before they spread—these tests could potentially improve survival and reduce the personal and economic burden of cancer.”²

The research team developed a microsimulation model calibrated to reflect annual cancer incidence rates reported in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Their model captured 14 solid tumor types that represent nearly 80% of all cancer incidence and mortality in the US.¹

In the analysis, cancer could be detected either through standard-of-care diagnostic pathways or through the addition of annual multi-cancer early detection (MCED) testing. MCED test sensitivities were informed by data from a large, multicenter, prospective case-control study.¹

To evaluate the potential impact of MCED screening, the investigators simulated 10 years of disease progression in a cohort of 5 million US adults between 50 and 84 years of age. The primary outcome of interest was the extent to which MCED testing shifted diagnoses to earlier stages.¹

Over the 10-year period, integrating MCED testing into standard care produced a meaningful stage shift. Compared with standard care alone, MCED screening resulted in a 10% increase in stage 1 diagnoses, a 20% increase in stage 2 diagnoses, and a 34% increase in stage 3 diagnoses, accompanied by a substantial 45% reduction in stage 4 diagnoses.¹

The cancers showing the greatest absolute decreases in late-stage diagnoses were lung (400 vs 765 per 100,000), colorectal (96 vs 236 per 100,000), and pancreatic cancer (89 vs 211 per 100,000). When assessed by relative reductions, the most pronounced declines were observed in cervical (83%), liver (74%), and colorectal (59%) cancers.¹

“Our study shows that MCED testing has the potential to substantially reduce stage 4 cancer incidence, particularly for cancer types that lack routine screening programs,” the authors wrote. “Although further research is needed to validate these findings in real-world settings, our results suggest that MCED testing could transform cancer diagnosis and improve patient outcomes across a broad range of cancer types.”¹

REFERENCES

1. Chhatwal J, Xiao J, ElHabr A, et al. The impact of multicancer early detection tests on cancer stage shift: A 10-year microsimulation model. Cancer. November 10, 2025. Doi:10.1002/cncr.70075

2. Could a liquid biopsy test lead to earlier diagnoses for numerous cancer types? News Release. November 10, 2025. Accessed November 18, 2025. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1104628