HPV Vaccination Is Expected to Reduce Mouth and Throat Cancers Starting in 2045

Vaccinations against human papillomavirus (HPV) are expected to reduce the rates of major throat and back-of-mouth cancers, but not until 2045, the results of a study from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health showed.

“We estimate that most of the oropharyngeal cancers from 2018 to 2045 will occur among people who are 55 years and older and have not been vaccinated,” Yuehan Zhang, a PhD candidate at the Bloomberg School, said in a statement.

The study results show that the oropharyngeal cancer rate would nearly halve between 2018 and 2045 for individuals aged 36 to 45 years. However, the rates in older individuals would stay about the same.

Investigators estimate that about 72% of individuals aged 36 to 45 years will be vaccinated, as will 37% of those aged 46 to 55 years, 9% of those aged 56 to 69 years, and 0% of those aged 70 to 83 years.

“Our projections suggest that by around 2033, nearly 100 cases of oropharyngeal cancer will be prevented each year, but by 2045 that figure will have increased by about 10 times," Zhang said.

Reference

HPV vaccination will reduce throat and mouth cancers, but overall impact will take 25-plus years to see. ScienceDaily. News release. September 2, 2021. Accessed September 1, 2021. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/09/210902174722.htm